[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091725
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
END 40 ENE CSM 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS
40 SSE LBB 15 W PVW 30 W AMA 15 NNE DHT 30 WSW EHA 40 NW EHA 45 ENE
LAA 40 NNW GCK 15 NNW RSL 25 WNW SLN 25 E HUT 20 SSW ICT 20 NW END.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20
ENE OTM 50 SW IRK 40 WNW SEP 35 W JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 35 SSW
P07 30 NNW MAF 30 NNE CVS 40 NNW TCC 35 S PUB 25 S AKO 20 SE BBW 30
NNW SUX 85 NW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM
50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR
25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL
15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM
...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35
E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 45 S
FLO 25 W SAV 10 SSE AYS 30 SSW JAX 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 35 ENE PWM
20 ENE CON 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL
KS...WRN OK...THE TX PNHDL AND WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2
PERIOD OVER THE WRN U.S. EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN WY
AND SRN CA WILL BE FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORMER WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WHILE THE LATTER TRANSLATES OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS TROUGH
/INITIALLY OVER SWRN MN AT 10/12Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE
ARROWHEAD BY EARLY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO
DEEPENING...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX. PRESSURE FALLS OVER
SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT EWD MIXING OF DRYLINE WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING
ALONG OR JUST E OF THE TX/NM BORDER AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON S OF COLD FRONT AND E
OF DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST FROM SERN NEB
INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...INCREASING TO 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS WRN OK...THE
TX PNHDL AND WRN TX. EXCESSIVE MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN
OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARS TO BE IN ERROR BASED ON OBSERVED 12Z
SOUNDINGS ACROSS TX...WITH NAMKF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY
FORECASTS MORE REASONABLE.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER
JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONDITION LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG
COLD FRONT...DRYLINE AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH STORMS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG MERGING/ORGANIZING MESOSCALE COLD POOLS. WHILE ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
COUPLED WITH WEAK AND POORLY ORIENTED HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW
WILL RAPIDLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...HIGH-PRECIPITATION STORMS.

...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN
MN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. INFLUX OF MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZATION OF ENVIRONMENT NEWD INTO NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI ALONG
AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
AROUND 40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

...ME/NRN NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL QUEBEC EWD INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS WILL BE
ADVECTED NEWD...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

...SWRN FL NWD TO THE FL PNHDL/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LATEST TPC FORECAST HAS CENTER OF T.S. ARLENE NEAR 19.4N AND
84.1W...WITH AN EVENTUAL POSITION OF 28.5N AND 87.5W BY 11/12Z.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG FORWARD RIGHT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LAND FALLING RAIN BANDS 
OVER SWRN FL FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE FL PNHDL INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.