[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090713
SWODY2
SPC AC 090713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
ICT 10 NW END 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40
SSE LBB 10 SW PVW 10 W AMA 30 ENE DHT 35 NE CAO 50 SSE LHX 25 N LAA
GLD 55 ENE HLC 10 ENE CNK 10 WSW MHK 30 S MHK 20 SE ICT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
P07 30 NW MAF 60 NNE HOB 25 N CVS 30 WNW TCC 25 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN
50 W PUB 35 SE DEN 50 E SNY 30 ENE MHN 15 SW MHE 55 NW RWF 20 SSE
BRD 40 SW DLH 55 SSE DLH 45 NE EAU 40 NW VOK 25 W LNR 20 SE CID 40
NNW COU 25 SE SZL 40 NNE JLN 45 SSE CNU 10 W TUL 35 WSW ADM 40 N BWD
45 SW BWD 40 WSW JCT 45 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AUG 10 SE LCI
25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 25 ENE
FLO 50 W SAV 20 SW AYS 25 NE CTY 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40
ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT
15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20
ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW
10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW
RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES....WRN/NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS AND A SMALL PART OF
SERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM S
TX TO THE UPR MS VLY...

CORRECTED TO ADD ANCHOR POINTS TO SLGT RISK LINE

...SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AS WELL AS
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE
WEST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST. A SW/NE ORIENTED BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY/NRN MEXICO TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THIS BAND OF FLOW WILL ENHANCE
ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED
TO BE SITUATED FROM KS TO MN. A LEADING IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB TO MN DURING
FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OF GREATER
AMPLITUDE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER AZ/NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN OK AND WRN TX...
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY WAS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WHEN
COMPARED TO PRIOR MODEL RUNS. NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP-SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A 45-60KT 500MB WIND MAX AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND GOOD POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN THIS MOISTURE GIVEN LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX...AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-SIDE LOW SHOULD BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF OK/KS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT IS
JUST AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FOR STORM INITIATION/ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE DAY.

INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN RAPID AND VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS
INFLOW WILL DRIVE A VARIETY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THROUGH
THE EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHILE MERGING/MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND MCS EVOLUTION MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LOW OVER KS/NWRN OK.

DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN NAM/NAMKF MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO DEEPLY MIXED/DRY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS...THE NAMKF PROFILES
APPEAR MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND
LOWER LFC OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES DO
INTRODUCE A GREATER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRONG
TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION.

NONETHELESS...FOCUS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG NUMEROUS
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THESE
FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST AND ROTATE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN
THE MDT RISK AREA.

...UPR MIDWEST...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SFC
WAVE AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MO VLY.
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD
RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
FROM NEB/IA TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE DAY.

...SWRN FL...
GFS AND LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING OUTER BANDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF TD #1 MAY BRUSH
SECTIONS OF SWRN FL DURING FRIDAY. A LOW PROBABILITY OF ROTATING
TSTMS WITHIN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE KEYS TO TAMPA BAY.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.