[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080628
SWODY2
SPC AC 080627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
FTW 30 WSW MWL 20 W BWD 25 NW JCT 70 SSW SJT 15 ENE P07 35 ESE FST
30 N BGS 40 NNW CDS 45 SW GAG 40 SE LBL 25 N LBL 40 SSW LIC 30 SE
DEN 30 ESE CYS 20 NNE AIA 25 NNW VTN 20 ESE 9V9 30 NE FSD 25 NNE FRM
30 W RST 15 NNW LSE 35 SE CWA 20 SSE MTW 40 SW MKG 50 N LAF 30 NE
MTO 30 NNW MDH 50 NW POF 25 NE HRO 10 SE FYV 25 WNW FSM 30 SW MLC 20
E ADM 40 N FTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BOS 35 NW EWR
30 E HGR 30 NNW RIC 30 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 25 SSE GGG 20
SSW TYR 20 ENE ACT 20 SE JCT 40 NE DRT DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30
WNW MAF 25 WNW LBB 15 N AMA 40 W EHA 35 WNW RTN 55 NE 4SL 30 SE FMN
75 NW GUP 70 N INW 35 NW PRC 30 WNW EED 20 NNE DAG 15 S NID 20 W FAT
30 NE SAC 50 W RNO 15 N NFL 20 N U31 45 NW ELY 40 WSW DPG 45 SE SLC
45 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NNE RWL 40 E RIW 55 ESE JAC 35 SW JAC 40
NNE BYI 20 SSE SUN 55 WNW SUN 70 W 27U 35 SSW MSO 55 ESE FCA 50 ENE
CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 35 NNE JMS 20 S BRD 55 WSW IWD 20 ENE IWD
10 NNE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL
U.S. INCLUDING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY WITH NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WIDE VARIETY
OF SCENARIOS. THIS WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS A FUNCTION OF
AT LEAST TWO PROCESSES THAT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY
POOR AT DEALING WITH...1) ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND
ITS ROLE IN DRIVING FUTURE FRONTAL AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
LOCATIONS...AND 2) FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
EMANATING FROM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH
ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES/FRONTS. WITH
THESE ISSUES IN MIND...THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO IS BASED HEAVILY ON
THE LATEST NCEP-SREF TSTM GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHTING GIVEN TO
THE NAMKF MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EMERGING FROM THE LARGER SCALE LOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL 
CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND BE SITUATED WELL NORTH OF
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL ARC FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS IA BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEB INTO NERN CO/SERN WY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE
THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...A
NUMBER OF MCS-INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE SITUATED WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM IL ACROSS MO AND INTO KS. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER
SMALL MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB.

WHILE A SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE
U.P OF MI DURING THE DAY...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
BOUNDARY IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS IA/WI AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
TRAVELS NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH HEATING AND DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT VICINITY SERN CO/SWRN
KS. FURTHERMORE...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
DRYLINE OVER TX/OK...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD TSTM SUSTENANCE/DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR.

...MIDWEST TO LWR MI...
STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE 
AND IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL FUEL
TSTM INTENSIFICATION FROM IA...ACROSS NRN IL/WI...TO LWR MI DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN
EDGE OF MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT /20-30KT/ AND MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
LINES OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY ALIGN NORMAL TO THE DEEP LAYER SWLY
FLOW TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
COULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL WAVE FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SWRN
WI/NWRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF CONVECTION REMAINS
CELLULAR AND TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY ENSUE.

...ERN CO/KS/NEB...
MOIST SELY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO STRONG INSTABILITY
FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND FRONT AS SFC HEATING AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MIXING ACT TO ELIMINATE THE CAP.
SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALL BE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL WSWLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING
IN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS THE OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST. A
FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS FCST TO COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ON THE WRN SLOPES
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RESULT MAY BE SCATTERED POTENT STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM NY ACROSS PARTS OF VT AND NH.

...LWR MS/TN VLYS/SOUTHEAST...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PULSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS OVER
THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
RANDOM DOWNBURSTS.

...ERN MT TO WRN DAKOTAS...
MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITHIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MIGHT PROMOTE A FEW
LOW-TOPPED HAILSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.