[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081730
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
SPS 40 S ABI 55 N DRT 10 SE P07 40 WNW P07 50 SSW LBB 20 NNE PVW 55
NE AMA 20 NNW LBL 40 ESE LAA 40 SSW LIC 30 SE DEN 25 SSE CYS 15 ENE
BFF 15 SSW 9V9 40 WSW RWF 10 SSW MSP 35 ESE EAU 40 W OSH 30 ENE JVL
20 NE MMO BMI 15 SE SPI 35 WSW STL 25 W TBN 40 NNW FYV 40 WNW MLC 35
SE SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 45 NNW HOU
10 NNW CLL 15 S TPL 60 E JCT 40 SSW JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE
MRF 35 NW MAF 30 WSW PVW 35 E DHT 35 WNW EHA 45 SW PUB 25 NNW CEZ 35
WNW U17 45 E MLF 15 WSW U24 15 E DPG SLC 35 NNW VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 W
RWL 15 SSW LND 55 E MLD 25 SSW BYI 50 S BOI 40 WNW BOI 55 ENE BKE 50
NNE S80 35 NNW S06 35 N 63S ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SSE DVL 55 SSW
BJI 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW HYA 25 NNE EWR 10
NNE ILG 40 SSE NHK 30 WSW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ERN U.S. AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD INTO MT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
SWRN STATES. THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER KS AND THE MID MS
VALLEY TODAY WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES OVER WRN KS. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LEE LOW IN
WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX.



...CNTRL PLAINS AREA THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB EARLY THURSDAY. OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS MAY REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NRN KS OR SRN NEB. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 SHOULD RESIDE IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE WARM FRONT
AND E OF DRYLINE FROM KS NWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NERN CO AND HELP TO ADVECT HIGHER LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS INTO THAT REGION. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF KS INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO EWD THROUGH NRN KS AND SRN NEB
AS THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO
AN MCS DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.


...SRN PLAINS...

THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS
MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WEAK DRYLINE CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE RATHER WEAK. THIS MAKES THE THREAT IN THIS AREA MORE
CONDITIONAL. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH MID EVENING.

...NERN U.S...

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SW. LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 06/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.