[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071743
SWODY2
SPC AC 071742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
ANJ 50 NE MKG 35 ENE BMI 10 S ALN 40 WNW UNO 15 S MKO 15 SSE ADM 35
S BWD 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 90 SW P07 10 NNE MAF 35 E PVW 35 W GAG 15
SSE GCK 30 SSE GLD 20 WNW LIC 15 SSW FCL 30 NNW CYS 30 WNW AIA 20
WSW VTN 35 SW YKN SUX 20 WNW SPW 25 NW RWF 40 NW AXN 35 SSW TVF 70
NNW TVF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW P24 30 SSE DIK
30 S REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 SW PIR 10 NNW HON 40 NNE ATY 45 ENE JMS 25
SSW DVL 20 WSW P24 ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE
HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA 40 WNW EHA 25
SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 NNE EVW 40 N ENV 30 SSW
OWY 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1
35 WNW AUG 15 NW PSM 25 SSW ORH 30 NNE EWR 10 N PHL 25 SE NHK 20 NNW
ECG 25 WSW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL EJECT
NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
SHOULD BE OVER ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS...SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO NWRN KS AND SERN
CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MN AND
NRN WI. THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE
DAY...WHILE NRN PART OF COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...REACHING WI OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PART OF FRONT SHOULD STALL
OVER KS THEN LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES E OF
KS LEE LOW. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX...NW OK AND NWD
INTO KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
EWD A SHORT DISTANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE
EVENING.


...UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PART OF UPPER GREAT LAKES...

MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL. EVOLUTION OF EARLY MCS IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY. PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS POTENTIAL
FOCI FOR INITIATION. STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN INTO WI. THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY EVENING.


...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT AND
DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO. LIMITED MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 600
J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEB OR A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NWD UNDERNEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.

..DIAL.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.