[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070616
SWODY2
SPC AC 070615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
P07 70 NE BGS 60 SSW GAG 40 ENE LBL 30 S GLD 30 ESE LIC 30 E DEN 25
NNW DEN 35 NW FCL 35 W BFF 10 NE AIA 20 NNE MHN 35 NNE BUB 30 ENE
OLU 30 WNW OMA 50 E SUX 25 NNW FRM 35 ENE RWF 20 WSW BRD 30 SSW BJI
30 S TVF 25 WNW TVF 80 W RRT ...CONT... 55 ESE ANJ 25 ESE CGX 10 E
BMI 40 SSW BLV 40 NE UNO 30 S SGF 30 W FYV 25 ENE ADM 15 SSE ADM 30
ESE SEP 45 S BWD 15 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 20 S GGW 35
ENE 4BQ 15 W RAP 40 N VTN 15 NNE MHE 20 E ATY 60 N ATY 40 ENE JMS 10
E DVL 60 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 10 SE PWM ...CONT... 15 SE BOS
20 NE POU 10 ESE CXY 20 SSE MRB 10 S CHO 45 E DAN 15 ESE RWI 45 SW
HSE ...CONT... 25 W 7R4 20 N POE 40 N ELD 45 ESE FSM PGO 40 NW TYR
40 ENE ACT 25 ESE TPL AUS 15 W SAT 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF
40 SE CVS 20 SSW LBL 45 ESE LAA 45 NW COS 30 NW 4FC 35 SW RWL RKS 30
E EVW 25 NE DPG 30 WSW ELY 35 NE TPH 55 N BIH 50 ESE TVL 25 N RNO 60
NW LOL 70 WNW WMC 85 E 4LW 55 SSE BNO 40 SW PDT 40 NE EPH 20 WSW 63S
35 NNE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPR
MS VLY TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION
EARLY TODAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SEVERE
MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ONE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL ARC FROM A SFC LOW OVER ND SEWD THROUGH WRN
MN...THEN SWD/SWWD FROM NWRN IA INTO SWRN KS...THEN BACK WWD INTO
ERN CO. THIS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY...A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL
MCS OUTFLOW TO THE EAST ACROSS MN/WI/NRN MI...AND THE DRYLINE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM KS TO TX WILL ALL BE FEATURES THAT
RESULT IN STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN WY AND NERN CO COULD ALSO AID
LATE DAY/EVENING TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A SMALL MCS
POSSIBLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB LATE.

ELSEWHERE...WRN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL AIR
MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WEAK FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

...UPR MS VLY TO MO/KS...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MIDWEST MCS AND
LARGER SCALE CYCLONE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES...HIGHER ACCURACY IN THE LOCATION OF GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THIS OUTLOOK.
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF HIGHER TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM SRN WI...SWWD ACROSS NRN IL...MO...AND
INTO TO SERN KS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS IS
LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE. WHILE THIS CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIE BENEATH
RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT... MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF DECAYING FRONTAL CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT
SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL.


...OK/TX...
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK...SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO TX. MARGINAL FLOW/SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPENSATED FOR BY VERY STRONG TO
LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND LIMITED
LARGER SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL LIE BENEATH BROADLY
DIFFLUENT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY AID IN MAINTAINING LARGE
SCALE EXHAUST ONCE STORMS FORM. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NERN CO TO NEB LATE...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SERN WY/NERN CO DURING THE DAY
WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT MID
LEVELS. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY...STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL NEAR DUSK WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
HOWEVER...AFTER SUNSET...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AID ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
REGION. A CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN CO TO NEB
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 06/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.