[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061733
SWODY2
SPC AC 061732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
AIA 55 SSW PHP 15 NNE PHP MBG 35 SSW JMS FAR 40 NNE AXN 35 NNE RWF
20 NE OTG 40 N SUX 20 ENE BUB 20 E MHN 45 ENE AIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E
ELO 35 SW ESC 20 ESE MTW 30 SSW MKE CID 20 NNW LWD FNB SLN P28 CSM
35 WNW ABI BGS 45 SSW LBB PVW 10 ENE LBL 45 SW HLC 40 NNE GLD 35 WNW
IML 25 SW BFF 25 ENE DGW 81V DIK P24 35 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS UCA 15 SSE
ROC CAK 15 W ZZV 30 NNE CRW 40 S EKN CHO WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE CRP
30 NW VCT 40 S CLL 50 N HOU LFK GGG 45 ENE PRX 40 NE DUA ADM 45 SE
SPS JCT 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF HOB 20 WNW AMA 25 W GCK GLD
DEN 50 ESE VEL 15 SSE SLC OWY 50 SSW BNO 30 SSE RDM 30 WNW RDM SEA
15 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN
SD...NRN NEB..WRN MN...AND SWRN ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO WRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLE...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

..SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE
THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE RESULTING IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A STRONG
MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD INTO SERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...UNTIL THE SPEED MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT AN MCS WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH MN AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LINEAR
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

BACK TO WEST...FROM NEB NEWD INTO WRN MN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
AT LEAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION FROM CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO ERN
ND/WRN MN ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
SWD INTO NEB LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER BASED STORMS 
MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY 
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
STRENGTHING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FORECAST OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE
AND MOVE EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE FUELED BY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. ONCE THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
STRUCTURE...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...
CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA AS FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL JET IN MEXICO AND POLAR JET FROM WY INTO SD.
THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SHARPENING DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE STORMS WOULD BE
SLOW MOVING AND NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL BEFORE
WEAKENING AROUND MID EVENING.

..IMY.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.