[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060613
SWODY2
SPC AC 060612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
9V9 35 WSW 9V9 10 WNW PIR 25 SSE MBG 55 ENE MBG 45 SSW FAR 25 NE AXN
35 WNW EAU 15 NE RST 35 SSE FRM 30 NNE SUX 20 W YKN 50 SSE 9V9.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 30 W TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 SSE MKG 30 ESE RFD 20 NNW DBQ 40 NW DSM
15 SSW OMA 45 W BIE 25 SW HSI 30 NNE MCK 45 E SNY 35 WNW SNY 40 NW
BFF 40 WSW RAP 10 NW REJ 35 NNE DIK 15 W P24 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 15 WNW PSF
10 SSW JHW 20 W CAK 25 WSW ZZV 30 NNE CRW 20 NW SHD 25 WSW DCA 30
SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 WSW 7R4 35 WNW POE 35 WSW PRX 40 NNW FTW 30 SE
ABI 20 E SJT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 SSW HOB 20 NW AMA 15
WSW LBL 40 SW GLD 25 SSW AKO 50 ESE VEL 20 WNW SLC 40 W TWF 40 WSW
BOI 25 E BNO 30 SSE RDM 40 NW RDM 20 SSE SEA 15 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
ND/MN TO WI...PARTS OF MI...IL..IA...AND NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD ATOP EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LIFTING ENEWD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING
DAY ONE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA. DEEP LAYER FRONT WITHIN THIS SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE
NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW AND MOVING ENEWD TO THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. A LEADING IMPULSE... NOW MOVING OVER NV/ID...IS
EXPECTED TO SPUR AN MCS EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING AND BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE REINFORCEMENT
BEHIND THIS LEADING MCS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/SD/IA AND MN FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES
TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN
NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE DRYLINE
FROM CNTRL PLAINS SWD TO OK AND WEST TX. ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN BUT STORM COVERAGE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGH PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...NEB/DAKOTAS TO IA/MN/WI AND MI...
WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING EAST FROM THE MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXIST ON
THE NRN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION...FROM NEB NWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO A
LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FUEL AN EARLY MORNING MCS OVER
MN AND WI EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET
DIRECTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD
BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM NEB
NWD ACROSS SD...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA WHERE GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PLUME OF WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM NEB SWD WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONGER INHIBITION THESE AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT IMPULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST FROM
THE ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER WRN NEB/SD. AS
ADIABATIC ASCENT AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ACT TO OVERCOME
THE CAP...RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG
DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE
SFC LOW/WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF
THE CAP OVER NEB/IA LENDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TSTM COVERAGE THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EASILY
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER IS STORMS CAN INITIATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND FORCING WILL EXIST IN THESE
AREAS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE DURING LATE
EVENING AS SEVERE STORMS MERGE ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT IS MODULATED BY SYNOPTIC LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN
NEB/ERN SD ACROSS MN AND NRN IA...THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUING.

..CARBIN.. 06/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.