[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051731
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
ISN 30 S DVL 20 W FAR 25 W AXN 25 NNW MKT 20 SSW FRM 35 S FSD 30 NNE
9V9 55 N PHP 35 SW REJ 30 SE CPR 50 NW RWL BPI 25 S WEY 45 W BIL 70
NE LWT 60 NE HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
PBG LEB ORH 25 ENE BDR 20 NE JFK 25 N SBY 25 NW RIC PSK LOZ BWG 20
SW OWB EVV 30 NNE SDF 15 N UNI 35 WNW HLG 30 WSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SW DLH 15 S
LSE 25 ENE DBQ 40 SSW RFD 35 SE MMO 45 NE LAF 30 NNE FWA 50 NNE MTC
...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 N VCT LFK TXK MKO BVO SLN LBF 60 SE AIA BFF
25 NNW 4FC 30 WNW EGE U28 ELY LOL SVE MHS 30 ENE EUG OLM 35 S BLI 45
E BLI ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 30 NE ROW 30 N TCC 20 NW AMA 40 SSW CDS
40 WSW ABI 25 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OH/PA/NY INTO
EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY/MT EAST INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN MN...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NERN STATES... WHILE A COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WEST..A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SERN MT/NERN WY
MONDAY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE SD MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
TRAIL SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THOUGH OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE...WILL BE A SHARPENING WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND
SEWD INTO NRN IA/IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PA/NY REGIONS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE DUE TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE LIFTING
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OR LINES OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT 
WIND DAMAGE WITH ORGANIZED LINES ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

...KY EWD INTO DELMARVA...
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN THE 20 KT RANGE...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THE
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER MID LEVEL
FLOW WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WILL BE
WEAK ACROSS THE REGION SO NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

...WY/MT...
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/LIFTING
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HAIL
IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

...DAKOTAS INTO SWRN MN...
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT AND WY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS
THEY MOVE EWD INTO ND AND NRN SD DURING THE EVENING...DUE TO
STRENGTHING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE MCS SHOULD
PROPAGATE ESEWD JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN MN AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WIND THE STORMS. SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

..IMY.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.