[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050605
SWODY2
SPC AC 050604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
ISN 30 ENE MOT 15 S DVL 25 NW FAR 10 S FAR 60 W AXN 45 NNE ATY 25 W
ATY 45 ENE PIR 40 NNE PHP 35 NNE RAP 15 SSE GCC 50 WSW GCC 40 W SHR
10 E BIL 65 E LWT 55 W GGW 75 NW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
PBG 10 NNW PSF 15 WSW POU 30 NE ABE 25 WSW ABE 10 NNE CXY 15 E AOO
30 WNW AOO 30 N LBE 20 ENE FKL 10 SSE JHW 25 NE JHW 25 NW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 ENE ROW
25 E TCC 35 N EHA 40 ESE GLD 15 W MCK 55 SW MHN 25 SSE AIA 25 WSW
BFF 10 SW CYS 30 NW EGE 20 ENE PUC 35 NE U24 45 SSE EKO 20 ENE LOL
35 ENE SVE 25 ENE MHS 45 SE EUG 40 N PDX 45 S BLI 50 ENE BLI
...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 50 NNW IWD 30 SSW MTW 30 NNE BEH 15 SSE DTW
...CONT... 40 SW GLS 35 E CLL 50 NNE CLL 45 ENE ACT 35 S FTW 30 WNW
SEP 40 WSW BWD 40 S SJT 10 ENE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NY INTO
EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY AND ERN MT EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY
OVER THE NEXT 24H WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM THE NRN/ERN GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL
START OUT THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO THE OH VLY
AND THEN TRAIL BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAN LARGE
SCALE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A BAND OF DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR TO SPREAD
ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PREFRONTAL AIR MASS FROM PA NWD ACROSS NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN AREA OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
WY/MT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...LEE-SIDE SFC LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NCNTRL WY AND SCNTRL MT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST
ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE COMMON FROM THE LWR MS VLY EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS /SEE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/.

...PA/NY...
NAM AND NAMKF APPEAR TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NAM LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALSO APPEARING UNREASONABLY STEEP. NAMKF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR A BIT MORE REALISTIC AND MLCAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WITH BANDS OR LINES OF PREFRONTAL STORMS
INTENSIFYING AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT AND 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FCST TO
BE SITUATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF SRN PA. SCATTERED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS CONVECTION
SPREADS EAST ACROSS NY AND NRN PA FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF GREATER SHEAR AND FORCING TO PROMOTE
NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
WIND AND HAIL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO KY/TN AND THE
OZARKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED
TO SLGT RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SHEAR AND/OR
FOCUS IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...WY/MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...
MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG IS FCST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DEVELOPING LEE
LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN MT AND NERN WY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
SPREADING EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW...UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY
STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY FROM CELLS DEVELOPING EWD INTO
GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEAR THE
WARM FRONT/LOW ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND BY EVENING.

HIGH PLAINS MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION
ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND AND PARTS OF
NRN SD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 06/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.