[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041629
SWODY2
SPC AC 041628

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
YNG 30 S MFD 25 N LEX 20 SSW BWG 10 NW MEM 20 SSE HOT 30 SSE PRX 20
NNE SEP 45 WNW SJT 25 S LBB 25 SE AMA 20 S END 45 N JLN 40 SSE IRK
20 ENE CID 20 NNW RST 70 NNE MSP 30 E DLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
HVR 20 ENE LVM 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL
55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30
WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 30 NW BKE 50 NNW
ALW 35 NNE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LFT 30 S ESF 25
SSW SHV 50 SW TYR 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT...
P07 25 S INK 40 NNW HOB 35 NNE TCC 40 SSE DDC 40 W EMP 25 WSW P35 35
WNW DSM 30 SSE SUX 35 E BUB 15 NE VTN 25 SSE MBG 35 NNW JMS 60 NNE
DVL ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 SW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CLM 50 NW DLS 50
NW RDM 40 N 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH ACCOMPANYING FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS WHERE IT SHOULD
STALL OVER PARTS OK THROUGH W TX. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY
LIFT NWD AS NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVING INTO THE NWRN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR AND MAINTAIN A RATHER BROAD FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. STORMS MAY ONGOING FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS PRESENTS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST AND
WHICH AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH
MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS
WELL AS LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING ANY ONGOING STORMS HAVE BEEN
MITIGATED.

...SRN PLAINS...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG OR AHEAD OF
FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK INTO NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. S OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT...DRYLINE OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN
WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE IN
WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL
SLIGHT RISK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

...NRN ROCKIES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.