[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040638
SWODY2
SPC AC 040637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
TOL 30 W DAY 35 E OWB 40 SW CKV 20 SW MKL 10 SW HOT 25 SE DUA 35 N
BWD 45 W ABI 55 SE LBB 50 E AMA 25 SE END 35 S CNU 50 SSW SZL 15 NNW
COU 15 WNW UIN 30 W MLI 15 SW DBQ 50 NE ALO 35 NNE RST 55 S DLH 35 E
DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 30 E BHB
...CONT... 15 ENE PSM 15 ENE EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 7R4 40 SE ESF
25 SE SHV 35 S GGG 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD
...CONT... 15 SSE P07 45 NE FST 30 E HOB 45 ESE TCC 35 N DHT 35 WSW
HUT 20 SSW TOP 30 W P35 30 WNW DSM 20 S SUX 30 NNW OFK 30 ESE 9V9 40
NE PIR 45 ENE MBG 35 NNW JMS 70 NE DVL ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 40 NNE
UCA 15 ENE TTN 25 SSE PHL 20 W WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL
55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30
WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 20 W BKE 25 WNW
S80 45 SW S06 30 WNW S06 35 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST TO THE OZARKS AND PARTS OF OK/TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE AND SPEED WILL
INCLUDE TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LEADING WAVE WAS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS
WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THE OTHER SYSTEM/TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
NEAR 44N 140W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 120M PER 12H ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE/ID
AND WRN MT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...APPARENTLY EVOLVING WITHIN MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN THE NWRN CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OVER THE FL PNHDL AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS OVER THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN MN INTO SRN ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MS
RIVER AND INTO WI/NWRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BROAD
WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING AND BACKGROUND ASCENT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION OF THE CAP AND PREFRONTAL STORM
INITIATION FROM WI/MI SWWD ACROSS IND/IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING AND MASS CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARIES COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE MESOSCALE AND
STORM-SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND. AN INCREASE IN
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FROM CNTRL IL/IND TO MO ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT...STORMS IN CLUSTERS OR LINES SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND
FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN OVER THE LAKES...MAGNITUDE OF
ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN POTENT UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED IN TIME/COVERAGE...AS FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

...OK/TX AND OZARKS...
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG THIS ZONE. DESPITE
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS
THE AREA...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE LATE IN
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW TOPPED BY 15-25KT 500MB WINDS
ACROSS NW TX AND THE RED RIVER WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS OR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS OVER THESE AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF ACTIVITY CAN
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER DARK...A SMALL MCS COULD BE MAINTAINED AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES ASCENT AND INFLOW NEAR THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/ID AND WRN MT...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE UPR
COLUMBIA VLY ACROSS ID AND WRN MT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEATING
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE
FRONT AS 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. MAIN DRAWBACK TO ISSUING HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLGT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION IS THE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S F. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE RESULTS IN MLCAPE
VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. WHILE THIS CAPE COULD EASILY SUPPORT MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL...AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION...HAVE OPTED TO WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BEFORE INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..CARBIN.. 06/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.