[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031736
SWODY2
SPC AC 031735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E
FST 35 SSE CDS 40 SSW GAG 20 E EHA 45 WNW GCK 25 S HSI OFK 45 ENE
ABR 25 SSE GFK 40 SSE RRT 10 NNW ELO 40 S CMX 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX
15 NE DEC 10 WSW BLV 10 S DAL 35 NW HDO 55 NNW DRT 65 E FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PNS 55 S SEM
25 SSW TCL 30 E GWO 45 E ELD 15 ESE GGG 35 NE CLL 35 N NIR 45 SSE
LRD ...CONT... 30 SW P07 40 S LBB 30 S AMA 35 NNE TCC 20 ENE RTN 25
NNE ALS 25 W GUC 35 S RKS 15 ENE BPI 50 SSW COD 40 SSW SHR 60 ENE
DGW 35 NNE CDR Y22 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 W CLE 25 NNE ZZV 25 SSW
PKB 25 N BKW 15 N ROA 25 WSW RIC 15 ENE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE
PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY
SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS
AND INTO NERN NM. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR
EXTREME WRN OK SWD THROUGH W TX. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE
DAY AND BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL EXTEND FROM WRN IA...THROUGH
CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD INTO
CNTRL OK SWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

GFS AND ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE
TO EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE ETA TENDS TO DAMPEN
THIS FEATURE OUT TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS AND WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF
THE EARLY ACTIVITY AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHERE SURFACE
HEATING DEVELOPS. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WITH 1000
TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND FARTHER EAST IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER
THE MS VALLEY REGION WHERE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED
 E OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT...SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS REGION. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY.


...SRN PLAINS...

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS IS EXPECTED OVER KS AND POSSIBLY INTO OK. STORMS MAY INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER OK WHERE FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT MAY BE
STRONGER AND WHERE FASTER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE STRONGER
DRYLINE MIXING. FARTHER SWD INTO TX...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CAP AND
WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER
STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN KS ALONG THE FRONT MAY SPREAD SEWD
INTO OK OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.