[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030607
SWODY2
SPC AC 030606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
LBB 20 SE PVW 50 SSW GAG 25 ESE LBL 50 WNW GCK 40 NW GLD 35 NNW IML
30 ENE MHN 10 SSW BKX 15 WSW STC 25 S DLH 20 NW IWD 25 WSW MQT 45
SSW ESC 50 NNW DNV 35 SW BLV 10 SE PGO 25 W ACT 50 ENE DRT 70 NNW
DRT 50 SSE LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ANJ 25 SSE OSC
20 NE DTW 20 SE FDY 45 ENE LUK 40 E LEX 25 W JKL 35 WNW HSS 20 NNE
AVL 30 W CLT 15 N FAY 25 ENE GSB 30 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 S AUO 35
WNW BHM 50 E PBF 40 ENE TXK 40 N GGG 45 W TYR 20 NNE AUS 35 SE HDO
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 35 ESE HOB
45 E TCC 45 N TCC 15 WNW RTN 55 NNE ALS 45 E GUC 40 W CAG 40 ESE BPI
20 SW WRL 40 SSW SHR 25 WSW GCC 25 WSW PHP 35 W 9V9 50 WNW HON 20
WNW ABR 25 WSW JMS 40 W DVL 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE
PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK NWD AND EWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AS MODEST LARGE SCALE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST ATOP RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
PLUME FROM TX TO MN. A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE UPR
MS VLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
CA/NV WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS
OF THE LEADING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...MOVING FROM ERN CO TO IA
DURING SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT RESULTING FROM
THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN TSTMS AND MOVE NORTH
ACROSS MN/WI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM IA SWWD ACROSS KS OK TO NW TX. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THOUGH
THE DAY...THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.

...UPR MS VLY EARLY...
AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER
MN AND SWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...FROM
SRN MN/WI AREA TO ERN IA AND IL...MAY MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS INTO AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM MN/WI INTO IL MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE DAY IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO
BECOMES GREATER...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY WILL INCREASE.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG LATEST NAM/GFS THAT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM CO AND ENHANCE
DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE PLAINS SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE AND
PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. NONETHELESS...45-50KT SWLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ATOP A CAPPED AND INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN
NEB/KS INTO MO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY BE
ADEQUATE TO ELIMINATE THE CAP...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN KS INTO NEB/IA.
STORMS INITIATING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IF A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO REMAIN VEERED AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPR
MS VLY SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LIMIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF KS/MO/IA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
MDT RISK IN THE NEXT FEW OUTLOOKS IF MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A
CLEARER SCENARIO OVER THE PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP EAST ACROSS KS AND INTO MO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
MERGE INTO AT LEAST ONE MCS...MOST LIKELY OVER MO...WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVING INTO NRN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIATION SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED BUT COULD OCCUR EITHER
THROUGH STRONG SFC HEATING...OR WITH STORMS BACKBUILDING INTO STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX OVERNIGHT. SHEAR SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT STRONGLY
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IF STORMS
CAN INITIATE.

..CARBIN.. 06/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.