[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021746
SWODY2
SPC AC 021745

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
SAV 40 NNW FLO 10 WSW RDU 55 WSW ORF 15 E ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
P07 40 SSE MAF 40 ESE LBB 40 ESE AMA 40 ENE DHT 45 SSE LHX 35 E COS
40 ENE DEN 35 WSW SNY 35 WSW MHN 40 SW 9V9 20 WSW ABR 65 NNE ATY 35
N RWF 20 ENE FOD 30 SW OTM 15 E COU 40 NNE UNO 55 NNE LIT 25 SSE HOT
40 NW SHV 60 NNE CLL 20 NE AUS 10 NE HDO 60 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE
JVL 45 S SBN 40 SSW FDY 30 NW HLG 30 WSW AOO 30 W DOV 20 E SBY
...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK 40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 40 NNE LVS 35
NNW 4SL 70 N INW 55 SW SGU 25 W P38 10 SW ELY 25 SE DPG 35 SE EVW 40
WNW RWL 30 SSE CPR 50 NNW CPR 30 WNW WRL 45 ESE MLD 40 SSE TWF 30
WNW SUN 40 NW DLN 30 SE S06 40 WNW GEG 50 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40
N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NWRN  STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER
LOW...THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SWRN TX FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY.


AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS EXTENDING SWWD AS
A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH KS AND CO. CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG
THE SERN CO/SW KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX.

...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION
ALONG THE STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO NEB...AND
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IN WAKE OF THE
MORNING STORMS...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF TX THROUGH OK AND KS WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND WRN TX
SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES NEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
TX INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. KINEMATIC AND VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

OTHER HIGH BASED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED
REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE
EVENING. THE NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
PARTS OF KS AND NEB. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT.


...ERN CAROLINAS...

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WHERE
SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT KINEMATIC AND SHEAR
PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.