[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020612
SWODY2
SPC AC 020611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 30
S SOP 20 W RWI 55 S RIC 25 ENE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE
MAF 10 ENE MAF 10 E LBB 45 NE AMA 30 NE LAA 30 SE LIC 35 E FCL 35 SW
BFF 25 WNW VTN 35 WNW BKX 30 NW MKT 10 ESE FOD 35 SSW OTM IRK 20 ESE
JEF 25 SSW UNO 25 SE HOT 25 NNW SHV 55 SSW TYR 20 NNW AUS 45 SW JCT
70 SSE MAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK
40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 25 ESE LVS 40 WNW 4SL 45 SE PGA 35 NE LAS 65 W
P38 45 WSW ELY 30 W DPG 15 SSW EVW 40 WNW RWL 35 WSW DGW 30 SSW GCC
40 WSW SHR 55 NW RIW 45 E MLD 60 S BYI 35 NNW OWY 35 SSW BKE 15 SSW
EPH 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE JVL 35 SSW CGX 20 E
LAF 25 SE DAY 30 S ZZV 35 ENE CRW 20 E EKN DCA 35 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40
N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD
TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF NRN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SWRN
TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX/OK DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
WEAKEN ON DAY 2...BUT MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.  BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD TO NERN CO...WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINING A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SWD ACROSS ERN CO TO WRN TX.


...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION GIVEN BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE INITIALIZATION WITH THIS
MODEL.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SWRN/WRN TX...AND ONE OR TWO MCS/S SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN MN.  AIR MASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NWWD TO
EAST OF THE DRY LINE IN SWRN NEB/WRN KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  MID LEVEL FLOW E AND N OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX/OK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN NEB/KS...AND LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  FURTHER S ACROSS OK/TX...STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH
SPREADS OVER THIS REGION AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL VEER TO WLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS TROUGH.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ALONG
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING
BROAD LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID
MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS/S FRIDAY NIGHT.

FURTHER N ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS... BUT
COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.

...ERN NC...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NNEWD THROUGH THIS REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING.

..PETERS.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.