[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011733
SWODY2
SPC AC 011732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
PIE 10 NNE DAB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE
MRF 40 SE HOB 15 WNW PVW 30 ESE DHT 30 W EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 20 NE
4FC 20 N CYS 55 E CDR 40 W 9V9 20 SSW ABR 50 ENE JMS 60 N DVL
...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 ENE STC 10 NE MKT 20 WSW FOD 10 WNW STJ 40
S PNC 30 W SEP JCT 15 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 10 SW CVS
20 WNW CAO 40 WNW TAD 20 SE CEZ 35 SW PGA 50 N LAS 30 SE U31 35 WSW
OWY 65 NE BOI 35 N WEY 10 N RIW 40 S CPR 20 S RAP 25 SSW Y22 50 SW
DIK 40 SSE BIL 50 NW 3HT 40 NNE 3DU 40 E EPH 50 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI
...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE CMI 30 W DAY 30
NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EPM 15 SSE AUG
20 ESE LEB 10 WSW GFL 20 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THIS
FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST
W OF BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT NE AND INTO NRN MEXICO OR SW TX LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH NRN GULF SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD.


...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
OR WRN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA. SRN PORTIONS OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NEB. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST FARTHER
SWD ACROSS ERN CO AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY
EVENING. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP AND
EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN KS. THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND WRN TX.  

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO
EXTREME SRN NEB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES...MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO AND SERN WY AND
SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE
POINT OVER PARTS OF SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG
AND N OF WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.


...SRN PLAINS...

THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.


...SWRN TX...


MODELS EJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SWRN TX LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX VERY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.


...FL...


OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING CONVECTION AND POOR LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST 6 KM. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.