[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010631
SWODY2
SPC AC 010631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 35
WNW AXN 45 WNW RWF 55 ESE SUX 45 SW OJC 35 SE ICT 20 SW FSI 50 SSW
LTS 45 ESE PVW 10 N PVW 20 NNE EHA 25 ESE LIC 10 SSW DEN 30 NE LAR
65 WNW CDR 15 NE PHP 30 E MBG 70 NNE DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
GPT 65 SE MEI 20 SW BHM 30 ESE HSV 25 SSE RMG 20 E CSG 10 E MAI 20
ENE AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
PIE 10 NNE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 15 ESE CNM
50 SSE RTN 25 E ALS 20 SE CEZ 45 WSW PGA 35 N LAS 35 NE TPH 50 SW
OWY 20 NW BOI 45 WNW 27U 65 ENE BIL 55 SSW GGW 65 SE FCA 40 E EPH 50
NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE
CMI 30 W DAY 30 NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EPM 20 ENE PWM
20 SSW EEN 30 WNW ELM 25 NNW JHW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ND AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL MOVE NWD
INTO SRN CANADA...AS STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
MAINTAINING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  A BAND OF
50-60 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NM AND TX.

IN THE EAST...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NNEWD FROM THE LOWER MS/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF AND FL TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.


...PLAINS STATES...
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE
AND NERN CO.  THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER S...
INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NWD...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS TO TX THIS PERIOD WILL SUPPORT
AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN NEB
ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE.

A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF WRN KS/NEB TO THE ERN DAKOTAS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG A SLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.

NEW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AND SWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN CO AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST IN THESE
AREAS. FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX...STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ
FROM NWRN OK INTO SWRN NEB WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
TORNADOES.  FURTHER N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS FURTHER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND VEERS TO
SWLY...ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A MOISTURE LADEN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE.  MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLS. 

...FL...
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...CENTRAL/SWRN TX...
THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TX /BETWEEN MAF
AND ABI/.  HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 06/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.