[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310548
SWODY2
SPC AC 310547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ FAT 35 ESE SAC
RBL MFR 40 WSW RDM PDT 30 WSW PUW 30 N 63S ...CONT... 35 NNE MTC MBS
GRB 65 ENE STC AXN 20 NW ATY 35 NNW VTN 40 ESE AIA LHX 25 SSE ELP
...CONT... 15 SE CRP 35 NNW NIR 45 SW CLL 45 NE LFK 30 SW GLH 30 SW
MEM 20 E MKL 30 E BWG 25 ESE LOZ 20 S BLF 40 WSW RIC 20 SSW WAL
...CONT... ACY 15 WSW ERI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN WRN AND ERN CANADA WILL
AMPLIFY SWD AND MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND. AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD FROM
MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WHILE A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD
AID IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.

...NY AND NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. HOWEVER....MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ALOFT PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS
MT/ND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
MASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB DOES RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 25 KT ALONG WITH 40-50 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
SPARSE...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY IS FORECAST.

..WRN MT/ID AND ERN ORE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM
EXTREME WRN MT SWWD INTO SRN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS THROUGH VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS ALOFT.

..IMY.. 07/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.