[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301652
SWODY2
SPC AC 301652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
APN 10 S PLN 30 S IMT 30 NNW EAU 15 ESE STC 20 WSW BRD 30 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 40 NW VCT
20 W CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 30 SSW FKL 25 SSW ERI 50 NNE CLE
...CONT... 20 SSE MTC 20 NNE AZO 40 W RFD 20 SSW FNB 40 NE LVS 45
NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 20 NE GDP 30 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 30 ENE
BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 35 ENE 4BK 50 ENE EUG 15 SSW GEG 30 NNW CTB
...CONT... 55 WNW HVR 55 WNW HVR 55 SE HVR 80 NNE BIL 55 NE DGW 25
NE CDR 50 SSE PHP 15 NW PIR 30 SSE BIS 75 NE ISN ...CONT... 45 NW
CAR 20 E BML 30 ENE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND NRN
MI...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...BUILDING SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY A SPECIFIC
DISTURBANCE...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORMS MAY FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND MN. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WI AND MI.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS STRONG AS FORECAST. IF
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...THE STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY REMAINS AND THIS
REDUCES CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. IF A SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE
BRIEF...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.