[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291651
SWODY2
SPC AC 291651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
ANJ 15 W TVC 15 SW OSH 25 ENE LSE 15 SE STC 25 SW AXN 20 SE ABR 20
SE MBG 45 SSW BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB
40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 35
SSW GDV 35 WNW DIK 40 NW P24 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT
35 E SBN 25 NNE BMI IRK RSL 35 W CAO 50 SE LVS ROW INK JCT 35 NNE
SAT 30 S CLL 45 E LFK 10 NE ELD 25 WNW MEM 20 NNW JKL 25 SSW AOO 40
ENE CXY 25 SSW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
ONE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ID EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND
RUC ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY REACH THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. OTHER STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD
ACROSS MN AND WI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPS
AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT AND LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM SUGGEST 
HIGH-BASED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...NRN MN AND NRN WI WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND SATURDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN US WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY ANY
SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY
AND NRN CO AND MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. HOWEVER...MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MATURE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

...SW DESERTS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE WHITE MTNS AND ON THE
MOGOLLON RIM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ELY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CELLS TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY INTO THE DESERTS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SCNTRL AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH
ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.