[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290604
SWODY2
SPC AC 290603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW
ANJ MTW 20 N MKE MSN LSE MSP STC TVF 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LGB PRB 50 N UKI 15
SE OTH PDX PUW 40 NNE 3DU LWT MLS DIK 40 SE P24 65 NE MOT ...CONT...
25 NNE MBS AZO 35 NW LAF SPI STJ RSL 35 SSE RTN ROW INK JCT 35 NNE
SAT 30 S CLL POE ESF UOX 10 E JKL EKN HGR 20 NW TTN 20 SW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY NWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN ESEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING
THE PERIOD. UPPER HIGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN ELY AND SLY
FLOW ALOFT/MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW NWWD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS
NWD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA SWWD INTO TX WILL PREVENT RICHER GULF MOISTURE FROM SPREADING
NWD....WITH DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY LIKELY OVER ESTIMATED ON NAM.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER/MID 60 DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MN/NWRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL WARM MID TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY AND AIR MASS SHOULD BE
CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHT
LOWERING IN HEIGHTS SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 500-300 MB INDICATE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD FROM MN INTO WI
OVERNIGHT.

...PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND IA...
MODELS INDICATE THAT IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EWD FROM WY INTO SRN SD/NEB LATE SATURDAY WITHIN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN A DEEP AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG
AND POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...ERN COAST STATES FROM DELMARVA SWD INTO GA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DESPITE 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALOFT...THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS.

...AZ/SRN CA...
DIFFICULT TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN 20-25 KT MID LEVEL
WINDS...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WINDS
ALOFT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE WWD INTO THE DESERT
FLOORS. IF THIS OCCURS...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE-600 MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..IMY.. 07/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.