[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300553
SWODY2
SPC AC 300552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ MER 40 SE
UKI 35 ESE EKA MFR 50 ESE RDM S80 MSO LWT 80 WNW MLS 55 SSW OLF 60 N
OLF ...CONT... CLE FDY RFD 35 S RST 40 NW DSM CNK LBL AMA BGS DRT
...CONT... 40 SW PSX VCT 30 SSE CLL 20 SE LFK MLU MEM LOZ 5I3 MGW
UCA ALB BID.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY
WITH THE WESTERLYS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY LOCATED IN
CANADA.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STREAM NWWD FROM
MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SW AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH PERIODIC EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

...GREAT LAKES AREA AND MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB...
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND THE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB
AND ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/NRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AROUND 20 KT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT MICROBURSTS IN ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM.

..IMY.. 07/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.