[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281713
SWODY2
SPC AC 281713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 35 SSW
FAT 55 E UKI 50 WNW MHS 60 NNE MFR 10 ENE S80 30 WNW 3HT 40 WNW SHR
25 NE SHR 20 NNE 4BQ 65 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 40 NNE ALO
25 WNW IRK 10 SW MKC 20 W SLN 50 ENE LAA 10 S 4SL 15 SE GNT 45 WSW
ONM ALM 30 S MAF 25 NNW AUS 50 NW POE GLH 15 ENE DYR 35 WSW SDF 25
WNW HLG 25 SSE BGM 20 NNW POU 30 NNE EWB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EWD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD OSCILLATE
NWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILES AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AN UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS AZ AND
UT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY IN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PROFILES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2 SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ELEVATED
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NE ND AND NW MN
DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.