[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280616
SWODY2
SPC AC 280615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 45 SSW
FAT 25 NW TVL 40 SSE MHS CEC 40 SE EUG 20 WNW MSO 20 WNW LWT 20 NE
SHR 45 ENE 81V 25 E MLS 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CMX 40 NW RHI
15 SSW MCW 10 E OMA 55 ENE HLC 25 NNE DDC 55 WSW TCC 10 NNW DMN 40
SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WNW MRF 55 SE GDP
10 SSE SJT 15 SSE TPL 50 ENE ACT 30 NNW TYR 25 S TXK 40 N MLU 15 S
MEM 35 SSW CKV 35 ENE BWG 30 NNW LOZ 10 NE CRW 10 SE MGW PSB 25 S
BGM 15 WSW PSF BOS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WHILE SHIFTING EWD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND WITH TIME.

SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SRN AZ / CA...FROM ORE EWD
SRN ID / THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY...AND PERHAPS
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWD INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT THIS
PERIOD...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WELL N OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF VA / NC JUST N OF BOUNDARY AND 10 TO 15 KT WLYS AT
MID-LEVELS...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.

...SRN AZ...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AZ THIS
PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  WITH SMALL BELT OF 25 KT ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS SRN AZ S OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE.

...PARTS OF ORE EWD INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAK FEATURES ALOFT ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND UPPER HIGH.  WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION
N OF RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NERN ND / NRN MN...
AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS MOST THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A GREAT DEGREE. 
HOWEVER...STORMS MAY MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE
NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION / SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND ELEVATED...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.