[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N INW 50 NE GUP
ALS 35 NW FCL CPR RIW EVW 25 NW BCE 50 N INW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IPL 25 NNE LAX
NID RNO 4LW BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW DVL JMS ABR
10 NNE BKX MKT 45 N EAU 30 SSE CMX ...CONT... 75 NE MTC MKG 10 SSE
RFD 40 ENE P35 FNB 55 N GCK TCC TCS 10 NNW ELP 10 SE MRF TPL 55 WSW
TYR 10 NNE TXK PBF 10 E BNA 15 SSW CRW 10 SSW MGW IPT PSF 15 ESE
PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BEFORE STRONGER WESTERLIES BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
EASTERN CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...MODELS SUGGEST ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY.  

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AS UPSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH EASTWARD
REDEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM CALIFORNIA COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.

INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO
EVOLVING PATTERN...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STALL/WEAKEN...BUT
BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM HUMID AIR MASS
SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES THURSDAY.  

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TO VICINITY OF NEW SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH/EAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLATEAU...WITH PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
WEAK FLOW/SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH
STORMS EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/ NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
BECOME ENHANCED IF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MATERIALIZES.  MODELS SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS UPPER JET INTENSIFIES FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. 
BUT...FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING/STABILIZATION.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARMING/STRENGTHENING OF CAP MAY OCCUR
LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. 
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THIS AREA AS CAP BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...PROVIDING DOUBT AS TO
HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME...BUT SHEAR
PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000
J/KG.

..KERR.. 07/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.