[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250553
SWODY2
SPC AC 250552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
JFK 25 W CXY 15 NNW JKL 35 WSW BNA 30 SW DYR 50 SSE HRO 25 S PNC 35
ESE ICT 25 WNW COU 35 SSE MMO 20 SSE JXN 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 15 W
MSS 20 NNE BTV 15 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CRP 20 W NIR 55
S CLL 25 W POE 20 E HEZ 45 NNW JAN 10 NW GLH 30 NNW GGG 55 SE BWD 15
NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 50 WNW EED
55 NW DRA 55 WNW P38 25 W CDC 20 SE U17 25 W GJT 50 ESE RKS 55 ESE
WRL 60 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW CMX 60 S DLH 35
NNE HON 40 SSE PHP 10 E AIA 15 W IML 50 NNE HLC 40 SSE OMA 40 S ALO
20 SE OSH 25 ESE ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO SRN KS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS.  FRONT IS FASTER / MUCH FURTHER S ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK
ACCORDINGLY.

ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SWATH OF 35 TO
40 KT FLOW...WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH
VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NERN CONUS SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING NEAR FRONT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE / INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. 
THOUGH COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG STRONG FRONT AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...STRONG FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 
THEREFORE...WITH SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...STORMS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED / SHORT-LIVED IN GENERAL. SCATTERED
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL /
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED
OVERALL.

GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF IN / OH ACROSS WRN PA INTO
NY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS
MAY YIELD MODERATE / UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  THIS
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DECREASES.  

...CO FRONT RANGE...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. 
WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
 GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..GOSS.. 07/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.