[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241724
SWODY2
SPC AC 241723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO
35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 25 NW PHP 10 N
HON 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT
35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N
HOB 65 S MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED 55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10
SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW
MOT 20 NE DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INLAND OVER BC...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NWRN INTO NORTH CENTRAL STATES.

A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS ORE/WA...IS
EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CONFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  DESPITE THIS WEAKENING WAVE...AN
ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SE/E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.


...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITHIN LOW LEVEL
WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF ND INTO NWRN SD.  A
SECOND AREA OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALSO BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE LLJ DECREASES IN STRENGTH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN RE-INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE.

MEANWHILE...A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S/ SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SSEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT AND/OR THE MORNING ND THUNDERSTORM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS
IT SPREADS SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS A
LINEAR FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER
MI...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST.

FARTHER W...MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN MT TO WY BENEATH INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER THE ONSET OF
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MONDAY EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...
THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS...MAY BE ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH
CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS ME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL OUTCOME REMAINS LOW. THUS...WILL NOT ADD SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.