[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240609
SWODY2
SPC AC 240607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO
35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 15 WSW PHP 15 W
MHE 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED
55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10 SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 50 SSW HVR
75 NE LWT 30 W SDY 40 NNW P24 25 WNW DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT
35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N
HOB 65 S MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES /
MIDWESTERN STATES WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN / DIG SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS.  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...COINCIDENT
WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.

...GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AND POSSIBLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND / THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME OVER THE
MO VALLEY...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST / MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...POSING A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- INITIALLY
FROM WI SSWWD INTO SERN SD / NRN NEB...AS STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS INVOF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT STORMS TO
SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI / SEWD ACROSS IA AND NEB WITH TIME...LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
EVOLVING ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
 THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN SD / WRN NEB / NERN CO
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE --
PARTICULARLY FROM WI EWD INTO UPPER MI WITHIN ZONE OF
MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

STORMS WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO
POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...THOUGH THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED...AS FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD BE  SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY
MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. 

...NEW ENGLAND...
NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF
EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH.  THOUGH IT BREAKS OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF OVERACTIVE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SCHEME.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT NEITHER THE
NAMKF RUN NOR THE GFS SHOW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL /
NRN NEW ENGLAND ATTM.

..GOSS.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.