[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231733
SWODY2
SPC AC 231732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 15 SSE DCA 35 NW RIC 25 SW SHD 35
SE UNI 30 S CMH 20 SE MIE 10 SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY
35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 55 ESE PHP 20
ESE YKN 30 NE MCW VOK 35 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 55 SSW SJT
30 SSW PGO 30 SE HSV 45 NNE TYS 40 S BMG 45 WSW JEF 35 ENE HUT 10 S
LBL 30 E CVS 55 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 25
WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S
...CONT... 70 NE ISN 45 ESE P24 40 WNW ABR 35 ENE ATY 55 SW DLH 65
ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE
PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION WWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN 3/4 OF THE
WRN-CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES
AND SRN CANADA.  ONE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW ALONG THE
BC COAST...DIGS SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES BY THE LATTER HALF OF DAY
2.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO IA AND THEN WWD
ACROSS NEB AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME ORIENTED
MORE W-E ON SUNDAY AS THE NRN PORTION SPREADS EWD REACHING NY/WRN
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING WRN PORTION SHOULD
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO WLY FLOW ALOFT.  A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 25/00Z AND INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO LOWER
MI...WITH THIS COMPLEX LOCATED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A
60 KT WLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN SOME... BUT SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS.  THUS...ONGOING MCS MAY TEMPORARILY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY...BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST
THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WV TO WRN VA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS... SHEAR VALUES
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS PRODUCING MAINLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO SD AND POTENTIALLY EWD TO SRN
MN/IA...AS A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WWD TO NRN UT AREA...
NRN EXTENT OF LOWER-MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THIS REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AIDED BY
STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  THIS
REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY
FLOW...BUT FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
A FEW MULTICELLS.  A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

...MID ATLANTIC/GULF COAST STATES WWD TO EAST TX...
MODERATE NELY TO ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE ERN TO SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO ERN TX.  MODELS SUGGEST
A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE SW AND W
WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT
TO ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE
PERTURBATIONS...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.