[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230606
SWODY2
SPC AC 230605

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 35 S MRB 20 WNW EKN 20 SE MIE 10
SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY 35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N
SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 15 SW VTN 55 WSW YKN 25 S FSD 25 SSW MSP
45 NNW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW MRF 30 E CVS
10 S LBL 35 ENE HUT 45 WSW JEF 40 S BMG 45 NNE TYS 30 SE HSV 30 SSW
PGO 55 SSW SJT 45 W DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT
50 S EKO 55 NE ENV 25 WNW EVW 40 NNE VEL 55 SSE RWL 50 SSE WRL 30 E
MQM 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE ISN 45 ESE P24
45 ESE MBG ATY 30 NE BRD 15 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BML PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH
VALLEY REGION WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN 3/4 OF
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST / FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
STRETCH ACROSS THE NRN 1/4 OF THE U.S. / SRN CANADA.  FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THESE WLYS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA
/ ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW.

WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEN INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NEB
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS WRN FRINGES OF BOUNDARY
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS.  BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NY WWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN
STATES TO SRN NEB.

...GREAT LAKES REGION / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS / MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH STORMS
LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N AND E OF LOW / WARM
FRONT. THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHERE GENERALLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.  SHOULD STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS WARM FRONT / INTO WARM
SECTOR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FURTHER W / ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM LOWER MI WWD INTO NEB / KS. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY WWD INTO
THE PLAINS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INVOF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WHERE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP.
 WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS N OF BOUNDARY...MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

FINALLY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW.  THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ATTM TO REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY...THUS LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL
/ DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN WY / WRN SD...WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.  THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO
THIS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.