[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221741
SWODY2
SPC AC 221740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E
APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 25 WNW MHE 40
E ABR 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW
FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD
30 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT
50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW
BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP ...CONT... 25 NW SMX 25
E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM
60 E S80 55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI
15 NW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
STRONGEST BAND OF ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CANADA.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TO UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
THIS RIDGE AFTER 24/00Z...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS SRN CANADA.  PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS AND 40-50
KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY
40-45 KT LLJ AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW...EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONGER DEEPENING
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
MAINLY ND IN REGION OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. 
GIVEN THIS LLJ WILL PERSIST AT SIMILAR STRENGTHS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE NORTH OF THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN
MN TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR.  STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS.  SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS
TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND...GIVEN A STRONG SWLY LLJ NOSING
INTO THIS REGION.  THUS...STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED...POSING A GREATER
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THIS CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN TOWARD 00Z. A STRONGLY
SHEARED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME QUICKLY LINEAR
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN INTO WI.  STORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NRN NEB...BUT WEAKER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN AN
MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... POTENTIALLY MOVING SEWD
INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY.

..PETERS.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.