[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220614
SWODY2
SPC AC 220613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E
APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 15 ENE MHE 25
NNE ATY 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW
FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD
30 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55
SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM 60 E S80
55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT
50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW
BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST / LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. / SRN CANADA THIS PERIOD...WHILE LARGE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ATLANTIC.  MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE BRINGS A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS /
UPPER MS VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT.  ELEVATED STORMS -- PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS --
SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...MAINTAINED BY STRONG / PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
JET.

MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY CAPPING INVERSION.  ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY BY LATE
AFTERNOON -- FROM MN WSWWD ACROSS SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS
REGION...WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR FRONT AS SECOND
BRANCH OF LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  

STRONG /45 TO 65 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG THE CANADA
/ U.S. BORDER...WITH SRN EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS SD / SRN MN / THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  WITH SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO ACCOMPANY STORMS / MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION N OF WARM FRONT. 
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST...SOME THREAT FOR
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR APPEARS TO EXIST. 
SHOULD THIS OCCUR ALLOWING MCS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED
WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME GREATER.  

MEANWHILE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG COLD
FRONT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL.  ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM
FRONT...AS ENE-WSW ORIENTATION OF COLD FRONT WOULD SUGGEST VEERED /
SWLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR THUS LIMITING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

..GOSS.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.