[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211732
SWODY2
SPC AC 211731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
DVL 35 SE DVL 45 ENE ABR 25 ESE MHE 60 W YKN 45 WNW VTN 20 NNW CDR
70 SSE 81V 25 SSE GCC 20 WNW 4BQ 35 SW GDV 20 ESE SDY 60 N ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IPL 15
NE TRM 55 W EED 40 S LAS 40 NNE IGM 60 NNW PRC 30 NNE PHX 75 WSW
TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT
10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30
WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 10 WSW RAL
25 S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS
25 SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE
ELO 60 S DLH 20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30
W MBS 80 NE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS
NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID LEVEL FLOW
EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER EWD TO
THE GREAT LAKES.  PACIFIC TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW...WILL
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE WRN RIDGE.  IN THE EAST...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN STATES.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WWD AND INTO AZ
ON DAY 2.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THEN
NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AT 12Z
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTING AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO DAKOTAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. 
MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH A PLUME
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE WRN STATES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS/WRN DAKOTAS BY 23/00Z IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LEAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...WITH SUPERCELLS
LIKELY.  AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AND THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL
MT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EMILY WILL SPREAD ACROSS AZ ON FRIDAY...WITH
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MAINLY ERN AZ EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED SOME
BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. 
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
REGION...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT INFLUX OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AZ INTO ERN PORTION OF
SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CA...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AS STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE WWD INTO THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL.

...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ONGOING MCS...
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN LAKE MI...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OH
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 23/00Z. 
THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD WITHIN NNELY MID LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE. AIR MASS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NEWD ALONG THE OH/TN VALLEYS IS
PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO NJ AND NERN STATES.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE OH MCS TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER SW...WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER...BUT AT LEAST 20 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER IN LATER
OUTLOOKS...PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WOULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK.

...NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 07/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.