[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
VTN 35 WSW PHP 40 NNE REJ 20 ESE DIK 50 ESE BIS 50 NNW ABR 10 S ATY
20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 40 N ANW 25 NNW VTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SAN 15 SE RAL 25
S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS 25
SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 60 S DLH
20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30 W MBS 80 NE
APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT
10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30
WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND
SD...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW NOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN
CANADA WLYS...ACTING TO FLATTEN NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH ON FRI.
 STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMS NWD FROM THE DESERT SW.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN ID
ACROSS PARTS OF MT.

MEANWHILE...THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE IN THE SREF/ETA/GFS THAT
TSTMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION FRI AFTN. STORMS WILL
BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY BUT COULD ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD DURING THE EVE. 
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE INCREASING LLJ WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SWRN STATES...
NRN EXTENT OF REMNANT EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NWRN MEXICO/AZ
ON FRI AFTN/EVE.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE INJECTION OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /CLOUDS-PCPN/ WILL REDUCE INSOLATION OVER
MOST OF AZ ON FRI.  MOREOVER...IT APPEARS WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...ACTING TO POTENTIALLY CAP SURFACE BASED
PARCELS.  GIVEN SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HOWEVER... TSTMS WILL BUILD ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE WWD
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.  ANOTHER PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SWRN AZ/ SRN CA WHERE LOW-LEVELS
COULD BE MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL RESEMBLE INVERTED-V
STRUCTURES...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
IMPORTANT VARIABLES PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NERN STATES...
SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS MODELS INDICATED EARLY
IN THE WEEK.  DIFFICULT-TO-TIME MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND/NY IN WAKE OF
ONE IMPULSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI.  THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MIGRATE SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH SAT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE OH VLY ON FRI.  AT THE SAME TIME...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
REMAINS OVER QUE.  AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF MAINE ON FRI.  AT LEAST WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/LEE-TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
TSTM INITIATION.  GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT... ISOLD PULSE TYPE SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL.  THREATS SEEM TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..RACY.. 07/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.