[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
CMX 45 W RHI 30 NNW RST 30 NE MCW 45 NE ALO 20 SSW MSN 25 W BEH 15
SSW FWA 40 NNE SDF 25 NNE BWG CKV 40 SW PAH 25 ESE VIH 55 SW IRK 10
SE FNB 20 NNW EAR 35 SSW ANW 15 SE MBG 40 S DVL 70 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MKO 35 N CNU
MHK 45 ESE AKO 15 WSW LIC 25 NNW TAD 20 NNW CNM 55 NNE P07 25 SSW
SEP 30 NE DUA 30 NNE MKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10
SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 55 N S80 75 WSW BOI
35 NNE WMC 25 S EKO 15 E ENV 20 WSW JAC 45 ESE LVM 25 W MLS 40 NNE
REJ 20 NE Y22 25 NE BIS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 S CZZ 30
SE RAL 25 ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE
FAT 45 N FAT 35 WSW TVL 60 SE RBL 35 SSW RBL 40 NNW UKI 25 SSE EKA
40 SSE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE
ERN DAKOTAS/MN....

...NRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA...
A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL EXPAND EWD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAINING NEAR AND N OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  ONE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ONTARIO...WITH A SRN
EXTENSION OVER WRN WI...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
QUEBEC AND LOSE AMPLITUDE...WHILE A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS 
FROM ROUGHLY OH TO NEB.  THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TOWARD NRN MN/WI.

THE SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
THE AFFECTS OF ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ONE
OR MORE ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL FORM AND MOVE SEWD TOMORROW 
ACROSS IL/IND/KY.  MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FARTHER NW...OTHER STORM
CLUSTERS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NEB...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE EVENING. 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS
WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.  LASTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION AND A FEW LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
EVENTS BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN...WITH
CONVECTION AND SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD
NW WI LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...SRN AZ AREA...
ELY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ TO THE S/SW OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE BEEN
MOISTENING ACROSS SRN AZ THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHILE A PORTION OF THE
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER W TX SHOULD MOVE WWD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
TO SRN AZ TOMORROW.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM PROPAGATION WWD INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS.  MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH THE 30 KT ELY MID
LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...SHOULD
AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE SRN AZ AREA MAY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES...PENDING THE
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...ORE CASCADES AREA...
UPSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HIGH...A MID LEVEL LOW NOW
CENTERED NEAR 35 N AND 133 W WILL EJECT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE TO WRN
ORE BY LATE THURSDAY.  THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY
ACROSS THE PAC NW...THE EJECTING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN A
PORTION OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME NOW SPREADING WNWWD OVER
SRN NV/SE CA.  THIS MOISTURE INCREASE...ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS WRN ORE.

..THOMPSON.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.