[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200555
SWODY2
SPC AC 200554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
LNR 10 W BEH 10 SSW FWA 45 ESE IND 30 NNW SDF 20 ENE MVN 30 NNW STL
25 N OTM 20 NNW ALO 35 SSE RST 10 NNE LNR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
ELO 15 SW MSP FSD 20 S 9V9 30 NE PIR 60 SE JMS 25 SE GFK 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 25
ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE FAT 25 SSW
TVL 40 WNW TVL 50 SW SVE 30 N RBL 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20
NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKO 25 SE OJC
FNB 45 SW EAR 15 NNW GLD CAO 35 SW HOB 55 NNE P07 25 SSW SEP 35 ENE
DUA 35 NE MKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10
SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO
MN...

...NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON
THU WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER AND CANADA. 
WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO CARVE
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NERN THIRD OF THE NATION BY EARLY FRI.

EACH IMPULSE THAT MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL HAVE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTS THAT SETTLE SWD...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY TSTM CLUSTERS. 
MESOSCALE DETAILS AND MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH WAVE WILL
MAKE FOR A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...AIDED BY WSWLY LLJ.  THE UPPER
IMPULSE TIED TO THE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 ACTIVITY WILL DEPART EARLY IN
THE DAY...RESULTING IN WEAKENING LLJ/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD FROM LOWER MI TOWARD
THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTN.  AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /REMOVED FROM
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN CANADA/. BUT...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

FARTHER W...PERSISTENT /BUT WEAK/ WLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE PLAINS.  TRAILING PORTION OF
THE OUTFLOWS MAY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION WHERE LOCAL
CONVERGENCE BREECHES THE CAP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD
INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONGEAL AND
PROPAGATE SEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW.  THERE ARE A FEW THINGS GOING AGAINST WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...NAMELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 
THUS...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK ATTM.
 

GIVEN SHORT WAVELENGTHS...NEXT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE MOVING QUICKLY
EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA BY LATE FRI AFTN.  RAPID RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE COULD ADVECT VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD
BENEATH STOUT CAP...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO PARTS OF NWRN MN.  TSTMS WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREATS.  

...SWRN STATES...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE
WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE FRI.  ELY FLOW AOA 20 KTS AND
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE LOWER CO RVR VLY LATER
IN THE EVENING.

...PAC NW...
AS MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM OFF THE PAC COAST...A RIBBON OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD FROM SRN CA.  INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...HEATING ALONG THE CASCADES AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN.
 DEEP S-SWLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
TERRAIN...OR MOVE OFF THE EAST.  VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND ENEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN WA OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NEWD.

..RACY.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.