[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191726
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
ANJ 25 NNW HTL 10 S MKE 25 NNW BRL 40 SSE OMA 15 ESE OLU 30 N YKN 50
NW RWF 25 NW IWD 115 NE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CLE 45 WNW EKN
40 NNE RIC 15 N WAL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV JLN 50
S OJC 35 SSE TOP 25 SE SLN 40 S RSL 45 S HLC 30 SSE MCK 40 SSW BBW
45 NE ANW 25 NW HON 15 SSE FAR 15 NW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N
RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER
50 WNW RBL 20 E CEC 45 ESE OTH 60 ESE EUG 40 S RDM 25 NNW 4LW 40 ESE
4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY
30 NNW DRA 25 ESE DRA 25 E LAS 60 SSE SGU 60 SE PGA 35 NE 4BL 20 SSE
CAG 10 SE FCL 30 ENE LIC 15 WNW LAA 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE WI/MN/IA AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD MN/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY...A REMNANT LEE
CYCLONE IN SD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH
THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 20/12Z INVOF MN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE NW IA AREA ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ.  SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON...WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  

...SRN AZ...
ELY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL HIGH FORMING OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS.  THIS FLOW
REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE RIM/MOUNTAINS OF SE
AZ TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
LOW-LEVEL WLY/SWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL ELY FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS STORMS WITH
MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE.  A PORTION OF SRN AZ MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES.

...DEEP S TX...
HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER TOMORROW. 
RESIDUAL STRONG FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER S TX DURING THE DAY...WHERE RAIN BAND
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TOMORROW...DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFIC TRACK/INTENSITY OF EMILY NEAR
AND AFTER LANDFALL.

..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.