[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190609
SWODY2
SPC AC 190607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE
APN 20 WNW HTL 40 SSW MKE 15 SSE DBQ 45 NNE DSM 30 ENE SUX 25 ENE
FSD 50 SSW AXN 45 WSW CMX 125 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE COD 40 WSW COD
20 SSE DLN 45 W MSO 75 ENE 63S 45 N FCA 60 W GTF 30 N LVM 45 WNW SHR
35 W SHR 30 SSE COD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N
RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER
30 ENE SAC 40 SE RBL 35 NE RBL 60 E MHS 50 SE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW
OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 35 WSW LAS
45 NNW EED 60 SSE SGU 45 W 4HV 15 ENE VEL 35 NE CAG 15 NNE FCL 25
NNW LIC 35 WSW LHX 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP ...CONT... 35 NW DRT
40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV 15 ENE SZL 10 S LWD 25 S OLU 50 ENE ANW 20 SW
ABR 20 W FAR 15 NW INL ...CONT... 20 W CLE 20 W EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N
WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND
UPPER GRTLKS REGION...

...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION...
LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WED ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER.  A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST SHOULD DIG SEWD INTO SRN ALTA...THEN STREAK EWD INTO NWRN ONT
BY WED AFTN.  SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE UPPER MS
VLY FROM LATE TUE INTO WED EVE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SEWD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
 AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE WED.

BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MN LATE TUE
/DAY 1 PERIOD/ AND BE ONGOING EARLY WED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT
LLJ.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LLJ/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE NWD INTO ONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 
THUS...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD 
BE LEFT TO WARM CONSIDERABLY.  PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  

THOUGH THE MAIN PVA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA...H5 FLOW
REMAINS CYCLONIC SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK...ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT
AND ANTICIPATED HEATING WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE
BASED TSTM INITIATION. STORMS WILL DEVELOP MOST RAPIDLY IN THE
WEAKER CAP OVER THE UPPER GRTLKS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE FARTHER W.  


MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.  BUT...WSWLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY AID IN EVOLUTION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS
THAT COULD BOW AS THEY MATURE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS WI TOWARD MI
OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME/EWD EXTENT.  

THE WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BLOWING FROM A HIGH LAPSE RATES
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTMS LATER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/SRN MN.  THESE STORMS WOULD MAINLY POSE A
LARGE HAIL THREAT.

...SRN AZ...
AS THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES E-W...ENELY H7-H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO AOA 25 KTS ACROSS SRN AZ.  BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...OWING TO THE UPSWING IN
DAILY CONVECTION SINCE THE WEEKEND.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD PHX/TUS DURING
THE EVE WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK
MAY BE NEEDED...PENDING DAY 1 TSTM EVOLUTION AND ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE. 

...S TX...
REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE WWD INTO NERN MEXICO THROUGH WED.  WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE STRONGER WINDS COLLAPSE TO
THE CENTER.  BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL ROTATE
ACROSS S TX WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.