[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180548
SWODY2
SPC AC 180548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 50 S FLG
35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 10 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 35 SSW LHX 45 SW CAO 45 E
TCC AMA 50 NNE CSM 45 NNE JLN 45 ENE JEF 20 S LAF 50 NNW MFD 65 NW
ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CMX 40 SW IWD
25 SE MKT 35 NE SUX 15 ESE ANW 30 WNW VTN 15 SSE PHP 60 N PHP BIS 45
N MOT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CROSS THE
GRTLKS REGION MON...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA WHILE WEAKENING
ON TUE.  SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NEW ENGLAND. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING WRN NY EARLY
TUE AFTN...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED
MORNING.

RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH ALL OF THE NERN STATES ON TUE...OWING PARTIALLY TO REMNANTS
OF DENNIS.  THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB 6 DEG C PER
KM/ ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYANCY WILL BE LARGELY MODULATED BY
MAGNITUDE OF INSOLATION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT DEEP
BUT SKINNY CAPE.  THE RESULT WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT MORE LIKELY ALONG
LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS.

STRONGER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH H5 WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 25 KTS FARTHER S.  RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT LIMITED HAIL POTENTIAL
GIVEN TROPICAL NATURE TO THE AIR MASS. IF A TSTM CLUSTER CAN BECOME
ORIENTED N-S...THE WSWLY MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO BOWING STRUCTURES WITH PERHAPS A WET MICROBURST OR TWO.  THE
SEVERE THREATS DO NOT SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.

...NRN PLAINS...
THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF ARE PREFERRED OVER THE
NAM IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIGGING
SEWD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINLY PASS
N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST H5 WINDS WILL SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS.  AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL REDEVELOP NWD
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  A LEE-TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKS TUE AFTN AND A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING FAR NRN MN/ND BY WED MORNING.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
LEE-TROUGH TUE...BENEATH A STRENGTHENING EML.  THERE IS REASONABLE
EVIDENCE AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS/NCEP SREF THAT ISOLD SURFACE
BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS
DURING PEAK HEATING.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED
BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM DOWNSTREAM FROM CAP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MN
AND THE ERN DAKS OVERNIGHT TUE...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. 
IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM...40-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. 
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GIVEN
AMPLE CAPE-BEARING SHEAR.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THE PROSPECTS FOR DAYTIME
DEVELOPMENT...OR HOW WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME.  AS
A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM...SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE NCEP SREF SUGGESTS.

...DEEP S TX...
OFFICIAL NHC FCST HAS HURCN EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS TAMAULIPAS
STATE IN MEXICO...AROUND 100 NM S OF KBRO BY LATE TUE NIGHT.  OUTER
BANDS OF THE HURCN WILL LIKELY REACH DEEP S TX TUE EVE.  THOUGH
HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER NERN MEXICO...THE
THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO ACROSS DEEP S TX GIVEN THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

..RACY.. 07/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.