[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171708
SWODY2
SPC AC 171707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
YNG 20 S MFD 35 NW LUK 20 SW MDH 30 ENE VIH 35 SSW UIN 40 WSW PIA 40
NE MKE 20 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX
45 ENE PHX 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 30 W 4FC 15 S FCL
30 SW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 NE CNK 15 N DSM 45 WSW CWA 35 N RHI
45 NE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TOMORROW
BEFORE LIFTING ENEWD INTO NERN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT.  SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS
VALLEY EXTENDING BY 00Z FROM NRN LAKE HURON..LOWER MI..CENTRAL
IL..SWRN MO..TX PANHANDLE THEN NNWWD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.

...GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN UPR MI ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WI AND IA
INTO NRN MO AND KS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERMIT AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 90F DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS
FROM LOWER MI/WRN OH SWWD ACROSS IL INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO.

STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL
AUGMENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.  COMBINATION OF HEATING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI..IN..OH..IL INTO ERN MO.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH
VALLEY...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...ERN CO INTO NERN NM AND WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...
LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/NERN NM/SWRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. 
IN ADDITION...PREDICTED WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AS SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NWLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
 HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY.  THIS IS
REFLECTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM OUTPUT FROM THE SREF.  12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ERN SLOPES OF CO AND NM
BUT THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES IN BMJ PARAMETERIZATION THAT EXCESSIVELY STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES BELOW 500 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF
SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM.

..WEISS.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.