[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170517
SWODY2
SPC AC 170516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
ERI 20 NW ZZV 40 SE DAY 30 SSW BMG 10 SSE SLO 25 S SPI 25 SSE MMO 20
ESE MKG 55 NNE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 25 SSE TUS
35 NE TUS 50 WNW SAD 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 35 ESE
CAG 25 WSW CYS 35 WNW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 N CNK 35 NW DSM 10
SSW EAU 20 SW IWD 80 E ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MIDWEST...

...CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS REGION BY MON EVE.  A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY MON AND BE SITUATED FROM NRN
LWR MI SWWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 00Z TUE.  

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN PLAINS PROBABLY
WILL DIMINISH EARLY MON AS STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT/LLJ TRANSLATE NWD
INTO NWRN ONTARIO.  WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO LWR MI AND INTO PARTS
OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND IND.  ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES...AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK /LESS THAN 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM/. NONETHELESS...
PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODEST BUOYANCY BY MID-AFTN.  THOUGH THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...FORCING ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION.  BOTH SPEED/
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS THE UPPER JET PEELS
INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY.  BUT...THE DEEP WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AOA 30 KTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME MON NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER GRTLKS
AND OH VLY.  

FARTHER SW...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. 
HERE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. 
FURTHERMORE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY BECOME
DIVERGENT...LESSENING CONVERGENCE BY LATE AFTN.  THUS...WHILE TSTMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEAR
LOW ATTM.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST NCEP SREF/NAM/GFS PAINT A MORE UNCERTAIN PICTURE CONCERNING
SEVERE TSTMS PROBABILITIES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MON AFTN/EVE. 
SELY UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 20-25 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...GIVEN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...IT APPEARS
THAT ONLY ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
PLAINS REMAINING CAPPED.  STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS SHOULD
HUG THE FRONT RANGE/MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.  GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND WHAT COULD END UP BEING LESS TSTM COVERAGE...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT LEVELS.

..RACY.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.