[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161725
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110
NNE CMX 35 WNW MQT 35 ENE VOK 35 SSE OTM 15 NNW ICT 20 E LBL 55 SSE
LHX 40 NW TAD 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 40 ENE DEN 50 ESE AKO 20 W EAR 20
SE MHE 20 N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD
30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 55 SW SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28
65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 25
NW TUS 55 E PHX 30 WSW INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR
30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE
Y22 60 NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW ...CONT... 50 N BML 15
ESE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA AND THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TOMORROW.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING
THE PERIOD...REACHING AN ERN WI/NRN MO/NRN NM LINE BY 18/12Z.  THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD... WHICH WILL
ALLOW STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI/IA/ERN NEB.

STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN MN AND EXTREME ERN SD...THEN DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN
NEB AND NWRN IA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR
VECTORS RELATIVE TO THE FRONT FAVORS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LINE
SEGMENTS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CELLS.  THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER 04-06Z.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ERN CO...
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF KS INTO ERN CO.  INITIALLY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOA -6C/ WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE SRN END OF
THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT INTO PARTS OF KS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROMOTE FORMATION OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ORIENTED IN A SLOW
MOVING BAND ACROSS KS INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO.

..WEISS.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.