[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160548
SWODY2
SPC AC 160547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 N
CMX 25 SSW CMX 30 SSW CWA 15 S FNB 25 E RSL 20 WNW GCK 10 S LHX 25
SW PUB 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 35 ENE FCL 25 E SNY 20 W BBW 20 SE MHE 20
N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 15 SW TUS
35 NNE TUS 45 S INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR
45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE Y22 60
NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD
30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 20 SSW SZL 30 SSE EMP 20 S
P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 15 ESE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
SIXTY TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW TROUGH WILL
SWING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY
SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EWD...REACHING WRN MN AND SERN SD BY EARLY SUN AFTN.  AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE GIVEN MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING.

WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY CAPPED...BUT AS STRONG LINEAR
FORCING/ASCENT APPROACH THE INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MID-AFTN SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE LATE AFTN. 
THE BACKED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW W.R.T. THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT
TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS/UPPER MS
VLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A LESSENING SEVERE RISK WITH TIME.

FARTHER SW...A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE
SAGGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN NEB AND IN THE INCREASING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE.  ACROSS THESE AREAS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS PASS N OF THE
REGION.  BUT...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND
AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT
STORMS COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
LATER IN THE EVENING...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE
FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS.  LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
SINCE THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.  AS
SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT/EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE RISKS
OF HAIL/WIND MAY VERY WELL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST...
AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ON SUN...THE WEAK UPPER LOW
RESIDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
GRTLKS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OWING
TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F AND H5 TEMPERATURES MINUS 7-8C. 
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. 
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UPS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS
TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING.

..RACY.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.