[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151728
SWODY2
SPC AC 151726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 W
RRT 35 NNE JMS 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45
WSW REJ 25 NW SHR 15 SE BIL 60 ESE LWT 40 W GGW 55 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25
SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE
FCA ...CONT... 20 E INL 50 NE ATY 25 N LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 30
WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW SJT 40 WNW SEP 45 SW ADM 25 W FSM
30 N JLN 30 S OMA 10 WSW SPW 20 WSW RST 35 N EAU 120 NE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA/PAC NW DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ESE ON SATURDAY...WITH
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BAND OF 40-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
EXTEND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO FAR NRN ND/SRN CANADA BY 17/00Z. 
AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN
CANADA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD AND REACHING WRN ND
TO SERN/SRN MT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
IS PROGGED OVER SERN MT/NWRN SD AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM
THIS LOW INTO CO.

25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEB TO ND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REACHING INTO ND/NRN MN AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARIES RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONTS.  A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO NWRN MN AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF ND...AND
EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER SRN CANADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.  FARTHER S...WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL-WRN ND INTO MT.  IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL WINDS AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST
AND MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONTS OVER WRN/CENTRAL ND.

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND N OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER ERN MT INTO ND.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING TO 12Z SUNDAY.

..PETERS.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.