[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
RRT 20 S GFK 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45
WSW REJ 10 W 4BQ 35 NW SHR 45 SW BIL 15 NNE 3HT 55 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25
SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE
FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 50 NE ATY
40 E ANW 30 SW MCK 20 W AMA 30 WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW
SJT 40 WNW SEP 10 E PRX FSM 30 N JLN 15 ENE FLV 30 NW LWD 30 WSW ALO
30 NE LSE 95 NNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW FRI NIGHT THEN EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT.  THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE COMING
IN SEVERAL PARTS WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DAKS
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTN.  AT THE SURFACE...FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL STALL AND RETURN NWD FRI NIGHT/SAT AS
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREAD
EWD.  A LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD INTENSIFY AND MIGRATE INTO WRN
ND/SD SAT AFTN.  MEANWHILE...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER CNTRL MT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING SEWD
INTO CNTRL ND...NWRN SD AND WY LATE SAT.

VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/
PLAINS ON SAT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH DRYLINE ACROSS THE DAKS. BUT...60S TO
NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH THE STOUT EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST IN
CANADA...THEN DEVELOP SEPARATELY OR BACKBUILD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND LATE
SAT AFTN...IF SUFFICIENT CINH EROSION CAN OCCUR.  MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE VERY LARGE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PROLONGED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MORE
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT
LATE SAT AFTN AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS EWD.  THESE STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT INTO ND.  INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE BOW
ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

OTHER HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S...PROBABLY
DEVELOPING IN THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MOVING EWD INTO SWRN SD/NWRN
NEB SAT EVE.  HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND INSTABILITY
LESS THAN FARTHER N.  THUS...STORMS MAY BE MORE MULTICELL IN THE
SPECTRUM WITH POSSIBLE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..RACY.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.