[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141741
SWODY2
SPC AC 141740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
DGW 10 N GCC 35 W REJ 40 SSW Y22 40 WNW PIR 35 NW VTN 25 WNW MHN BFF
20 NNE DGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38
40 SSW MLD 50 SW MQM 45 WSW 27U 50 E S80 15 SSW MSO 25 SW HVR 40 N
HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 20 W P24 15 WSW BIS 25 W JMS 25 WNW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW
PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD LATE IN THE
DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES.  HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN STATES IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH EXITING THIS REGION TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A MORE
NEWD TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN PLAINS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD TOWARD
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE...AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING HEIGHT
BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF MID LEVEL W/NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SRN CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NERN MN SWWD TO WRN NEB/
NERN CO AT 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.

SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT/ERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
ATOP THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
ERN WY INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
ATOP THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  A SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
ID/WRN MT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR WEST.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD
STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.  AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA AND
SUBSEQUENT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH A FEW MULTICELLS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..PETERS.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.