[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140559
SWODY2
SPC AC 140559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
ANW 25 NNW BFF 25 NNE DGW 20 NNE GCC 35 W REJ 40 SE REJ 45 SE MBG 60
E FAR 25 SW ELO 45 WNW IWD 55 NNE EAU 35 SSE FSD 35 S ANW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW PWM
...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38 45 SSW MLD BIL 35 E MLS 50 SW DIK 10
W Y22 50 NNE MBG 35 SSW TVF 35 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ERN WY AND
SRN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN ERN WY. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN SD DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED
7.5 C/KM. AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS ERN SD...MN AND NRN WI...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT
MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.