[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ELO BRD ATY HON PIR MBG 75 N GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL
AUG BAF 30 N MSV UCA MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 70 N TUS
INW GUP 55 ENE DRO RWL RIW 25 NNE WEY LVM BIL MLS GDV SDY 60 N ISN
...CONT... 60 NNE CMX IWD SPW SUX OFK MCK 55 ENE LAA LBL GAG END BVO
COU STL HOP 50 NW CSV 45 WNW TRI 35 E 5I3 CRW 25 SW ZZV CMH 50 WSW
FWA SBN GRR 65 SE OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND AND
NRN/ERN NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN MN AND ERN
DAKOTAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM SASK
AND NRN MT TO MN AND NWRN ONT BY 15/12Z.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IS PROGGED AMPLITUDE...RECENT RUNS OF OPERATIONAL
ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...AS WELL AS 09Z SREF MEMBERS -- ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SRN
PORTION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED
TO DIG SEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN QUE EARLY IN PERIOD...CROSSING NERN NY
AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THEREAFTER.  IN SRN STREAM...BLOCKING GREAT
BASIN HIGH AND BROAD/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER LOWER OH VALLEY EACH
SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT POSITIONS.

AT SFC...DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE LOWER OH VALLEY CYCLONE --
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS -- AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH NRN STREAM TROUGH.  EASTERN FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND NERN NY...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD OVER ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO NRN PORTION OF REMAINS OF DENNIS.  OVER NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND AND WRN SD EARLY
IN PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD ACROSS NERN/SWRN NEB AND NERN
CO BY 15/12Z.

...ERN/NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR BOWS WITH PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING GUSTS.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HINDER
SFC HEATING IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY IN DAY. 
HOWEVER...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXPECT 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS AND INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. 
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION AS QUE TROUGH
APPROACHES.  WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
EXCEPT INVOF ANY OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT MAY
LINGER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT.  SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 15/00Z BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND
POSTFRONTAL CAA.

...NRN PLAINS...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN
ND AND NRN MN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
WITH TIME OVER WARM SECTOR..AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
W...CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  ONLY SLIGHT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...INDICATING LARGELY LINEAR OR
SEGMENT CONVECTIVE MODE.  DAMAGING WIND IS PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH INTENSE SFC HEATING AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH FRONTAL LIFT TO INITIATE TSTMS
FARTHER S OVER SD/NEB...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT...WHILE CAPPING INCREASES.  THERFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
BECOME MARGINAL SWWD THROUGH THAT AREA AND TOWARD CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...
SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE IS FCST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM OH VALLEY
CYCLONE ACROSS AR AND N TX...POTENTIALLY SERVING AS ENHANCED FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.  FARTHER E...PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING  SHOULD SERVE AS NRN BOUND
FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  AIR MASS S OF THAT BOUNDARY
AND INVOF SFC ROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLY HEATED DURING AFTERNOON...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS.  MESOSCALE/MULTICELL CONCENTRATIONS OF TSTMS MAY BE
SUPPORTED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS MOVING SLOWLY AROUND SRN
SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.