[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130705
SWODY2
SPC AC 130704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 20 N STC
15 NNE FSD 25 E AKO LIC 10 N LHX 25 SW GCK TOP 25 S MKE 65 ESE OSC
...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 30 NW SOW 30 NE U17 30 SSE EVW 40 W BPI 20 ENE
JAC 55 E BIL 65 NNE ISN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED
V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT
MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE
NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.